Uss Francis
Can we trust global warming predictions based on climate models?
I remember when Hurricane Francis came over my home town in Florida and the Weather Channel, this is before the power went out of course, was giving us a 90% chance of precipitation for the day. I looked outside to see my bark porch flooded and winds lashing the palms. That 90% chance was the result of data entered into computer models apparently with a 10% margin of error. If these models give results like this can we really trust these global warming models? Especially when these models do not take into account variables such as atmospheric water vapor and location of weather stations?
No, we cannot trust the climate models.
"The claim by the IPCC that an imposed climate forcing (such as added atmospheric concentrations of CO2) can work through the parameterizations involved in the atmospheric, land, ocean and continental ice sheet components of the climate model to create skillful global and regional forecasts decades from now is a remarkable statement. That the IPCC states that this is a ‘much more easily solved problem than forecasting weather patterns just weeks from now’ is clearly a ridiculous scientific claim."
This quote was taken from "A Short Summary of Why Skillful Climate Prediction Is Much More Difficult than Skillful Weather Prediction," by Roger A. Pielke.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/05/23/a-short-summary-of-why-skillful-climate-prediction-is-much-more-difficult-than-skillful-weather-prediction/
Models that claim to predict climate 100 years into the future are worthless. The models were already wrong about Antarctica. See
http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/anttemps.htm
Climate models used to predict short term regional climate are wrong more than half the time. This has been in the news. Peer-reviewed articles sometimes attempt to address this failure.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL027654.shtml
Part of the reason climate models fail is that climate scientists have not bothered to learn from scientific forecasting the right methods to use. J. Scott Armstrong is one of the leaders of scientific forecasting. He audited the methods used by the IPCC to come up with their predictions and found they violated 79 principles of scientific forecasting. See his website http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/
Armstrong and Kesten Green wrote a paper explaining the audit of the IPCC and what they found. You can read the paper at http://forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/WarmAudit31.pdf
After auditing the IPCC methods, Armstrong proposed a bet with Al Gore about global warming. Gore has not replied to his offer.
Another expert on predicting nature is Duke professor Orrin Pilkey. Pilkey is an expert on coastal geography. He has seen great many predictions about changing coastlines fail. He and his daughter wrote a book title "Useless Arithmetic."
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